We expect the economic growth performance, which we have focused more on with the new economy perspective, and whose high level is given importance by the economy management, to be above peer countries despite the challenging factors in 4Q21. Within the framework of the 4Q21 and 2021 general GDP growth performance, which was photographed with leading growth indicators; Despite the risks of the industrial supply chain, inflationary pressures and growing global economic growth, we saw that sectoral performances were positive on average. In this context, we expect real GDP performance to grow by 6.3% compared to the same quarter of the previous year. In 2021, as a whole, we calculate the growth to be 10.8%.
After the short-term economic recession caused by the pandemic, the economy recovered more quickly compared to peer economies with the incentive mechanism and provided high growth performance. A good export performance was displayed as foreign demand turned positive with normalized conditions. Although the contribution of net exports to growth increased in this period, the recent increase in imports stemming from energy prices restrains this trend. On the other hand, although the change of course of the supply chains is a plus for Turkey in terms of exporting goods, the global shortage of input supply and supply-based pricing in energy increase industrial production costs. It is observed that the industrial performance in Turkey accelerated significantly in 2021 compared to the previous year and remained active. Under this profile, it is obvious that the main problem in the economy is not growth. Inflation is present as a bigger problem in Turkey’s current economic profile and sustainable growth axis.
As a result of the movements in the exchange rate towards the end of the year, in addition to the global cost pressures, we also saw the effect of the weakening of the lira on the supply of raw materials and thus on the producer costs. Especially within the framework of recent developments, there is a risk that the Ukraine crisis will increase energy costs. In addition, in possible supply constraints, there may be a possibility that this will reflect on demand through the general domestic and foreign economic situation, and on production in terms of industry trends.
We still care about the investment effect in terms of sustainable growth effect. Therefore, the macro environment needs to remain stable and predictable in firms’ production capacity and employment trends. For 2022, we consider the negative impact of record inflation on consumption, the increase in energy costs because of the war in Ukraine, as well as its effects on tourism and export revenues as downside risks. We are more cautious within the framework of the global supply network, geopolitical risks and macroeconomic developments, and we expect a growth path that can normalize around 4% throughout 2022.
Kaynak: Tera Yatırım
Hibya Haber Ajansı