Some developments after Putin’s statements;
· Russia announced that it will recognize the separatists who establish authority on the borders.
· The UK will impose sanctions on 5 Russian banks due to the Ukraine crisis.
· Scholz said Nord Stream 2 certification will not happen at this time.
The financial system sanction, the possibility of stopping Nord Stream 2, the fact that Russia will probably support the separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk, not the occupation. Or even if Russia makes an invasion, it is not a complete, but a partial occupation situation, in which the region already has Russia as the authority. it is not a situation that will make much difference either because it is now connected. Markets are trying to understand whether the worst case has already been seen in the crisis. From now on, the extra triggers for the crisis are: A hot conflict (Probably, different scenarios will have to be written, especially on energy supply), Russia’s attempt to make a total invasion beyond the separatist regions (Still, weak probability, it will not be useful. Putin will not want to experience the Iraq experiences of the USA, Soviets in Afghanistan e.g.). De-facto independence such as South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia or an annexation such as Crimea will constitute a more familiar situation for separatist regions.
The UK’s financial sanctions will cover banks Rossiya, IS Bank, General Bank, Promsvyazbank and Black Sea Bank. Sberbank and VTB, Russia’s two largest state-owned banks, were not included in the list of banks targeted by EU and UK sanctions.
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